Can Elon Musk rise to political power in the U.S.?

Could a third party lead Congress and change America? Political center is waiting: Is this the beginning of a political shift in USA?

The most influential entrepreneur of the 21st century

Elon Musk is not merely a successful businessman or the world’s richest man. He’s a global figure who embodies innovation, paradigm shifts, and defiance of traditional structures. Born in South Africa and now an American citizen, he has transformed entire industries, from electric vehicles with Tesla, to space exploration with SpaceX, telecommunications with Starlink, neurotechnology with Neuralink, and artificial intelligence with xAI. He was also a key figure in bringing Donald Trump to the White House. Moreover, as owner of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), he wields a global megaphone, unfiltered and direct.

Beyond his technological genius, Musk has become an increasingly vocal political presence. He’s criticized both Democrats and Republicans, denouncing polarization, systemic inefficiency, and both parties’ shift toward ideological extremes. On several occasions —whether seriously or provocatively, as is his style— he has suggested the need for a third political party in the U.S. that represents those who no longer identify with either the conservative right or the progressive left. In 2022, he tweeted that if he ever founded a party, he would call it the “Moderate Party.” That idea resonated. Today, he speaks of the “American Party.”

The disappearance of the political center in the U.S.?

Since the year 2000 —and more intensely since 2016— the American two-party system has undergone growing ideological polarization that has pushed the political center aside, leaving millions of voters feeling ignored and politically orphaned.

The Republican Party, traditionally a coalition of fiscal conservatives, moderate libertarians, and religious traditionalists, has undergone a profound transformation. The rise of the Tea Party in 2009 —spurred by resistance to public spending, Obama-era policies, and a perceived socialist threat— triggered a radicalization of its base. This wave gave way to a more confrontational, anti-establishment, and populist narrative. With Donald Trump’s arrival in 2016, the party completed its ideological redefinition, moving toward a form of conservative authoritarianism, nationalist, anti-globalist, skeptical of the scientific and media elite, and supportive of migration controls, economic protectionism, and prioritizing public order over civil rights. The MAGA movement (“Make America Great Again”) consolidated this shift, becoming the emotional and ideological banner of millions of Republican voters. While moderate voices still exist within the party, the center has been almost entirely displaced.

On the other side, Democratic Party has steadily shifted toward democratic socialism, drifting away from the centrist positions that defined Bill Clinton’s leadership in the 1990s under the so-called “Third Way.” After the 2008 financial crisis, a new generation of leaders and voters demanded greater state intervention to address structural inequalities. The Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011 brought income inequality between the top 1% and the rest to the forefront, laying the ideological groundwork for a party shift. Since then, the Democratic discourse has emphasized equity, social justice, expanded civil rights, intersectional feminism, accelerated energy transition, and redistributive policies—such as taxing the wealthy, expanding public healthcare, and free education. Leaders like Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Cori Bush, and Ilhan Omar have played key roles in pushing this progressive agenda, which, even when not enacted into law, now sets the tone for national debate.

Just recently, Zohran Mamdani —a self-proclaimed democratic socialist— won the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor.

Although Joe Biden projected a centrist, conciliatory image rooted in Obama-era realism, his presidency was consistently pressured by a more radicalized base, especially among youth, racial minorities, and urban voters. These groups demand deep structural reforms: a Green New Deal, Medicare for All, widespread student debt cancellation, and a foreign policy aligned with human rights. Thus, the Democratic Party now faces internal tensions between its institutional moderates and a new left determined to redefine the role of the state in the economy and social life.

How many centrist voters feel politically orphaned?

The U.S. is going through a phase of intense political polarization. Millions of citizens who once identified with a moderate vision —based on dialogue, fiscal balance, individual freedoms, and gradual reform— now find themselves pushed aside or invisible due to the growing radicalism of the two traditional parties. The political center, historically broad and decisive in presidential elections, has been marginalized by increasingly ideological, reactionary, and sectarian rhetoric.

The democratic case: Moderates in search of a common come

According to Pew Research Center and Gallup, among registered Democratic voters, 34% identify as moderates, 55% as liberals, and only 9% as conservatives. This means a third of the Democratic base sits in the centrist spectrum, distanced from the party’s current progressive agenda.

A January 2025 Gallup poll revealed that 45% of Democratic voters and sympathizers want the party to adopt a more moderate direction. Of that group, 43% identify as centrists, and 62% of them prefer a less left-leaning platform. This shows rising internal tension between party leadership and a significant portion of its base.

Assuming there are about 50 million registered Democrats, and 34% are moderates, that gives us roughly 17 million centrist-leaning voters. If at least half are dissatisfied with the party’s progressive shift, that’s over 8 million people potentially open to a new political alternative. Even under more conservative estimates —say 10% to 15% of Democratic moderates feel ideologically orphaned— that would still represent 5 to 8 million potential swing voters.

The republican case: Moderates exiled by the MAGA era

On the Republican side, the transformation has been even more dramatic. According to Pew and political analysis from NPR and Politico, about 25% of Republican voters identified as moderates before Donald Trump’s rise. However, after MAGA’s dominance and the shift toward nationalist, autocratic conservatism, at least 12% of these voters have abandoned partisan identification and now declare themselves independents or politically homeless.

With around 55 million registered Republicans, this 12% represents between 6 and 10 million people who might welcome a less extreme, more pragmatic political alternative, one rooted in liberal conservatism, institutional governance, and traditional values.

A silent majority in search of representation

If we combine disenchanted centrists from the Democratic side with displaced moderates from the Republican camp, we get a critical mass of 11 to 18 million voters who no longer feel represented by the current political offerings. This cross-sectional group —cutting across ideological and demographic lines— could be called the “silent majority of the 21st century.” They are pragmatic citizens, concerned with solutions than slogans, with effectiveness over partisanship, and with stability over cultural wars. In a U.S. electoral system where presidential races often hinge on razor-thin margins in a dozen key swing states, this silent majority could decisively tilt the national balance of power. In states like Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, or Pennsylvania, a few tens of thousands of votes can change the course of history.

How big is the independent field?

Beyond party shifts, general voter registration data reveals an even more significant trend: the growing independence of the electorate. According to combined data from the Federal Election Commission and the U.S. Census Bureau: 32% of registered voters identify as Democrats, 29% as Republicans and a striking 39% as independents or unaffiliated with any party

That means nearly 4 out of every 10 voters feel unrepresented by either of the two main parties. In absolute terms, we’re talking about over 90 million people. This is the broadest, most volatile, and most strategic voting bloc in the country, and it holds the key to any political movement aiming to break the two-party monopoly.

And this bloc is not apathetic. It rejects not politics, but polarization, corruption, inefficiency, and the lack of long-term vision. These voters want authentic leadership, concrete proposals, freedom with responsibility, and a genuine ethic of public service. They’re not looking for dogmatic ideologies, but for innovation, pragmatism, and common sense. In short, they’re looking for the same values Musk has championed in the fields of technology, entrepreneurship, and global disruption.

Is there room for a third party?

The question is no longer whether there’s room. The real question is whether there is courage to occupy it, structure to sustain it, and leadership to inspire it. Because the political vacuum is there. Waiting to be filled. And if that silent majority decides to speak, it won’t do so by shouting, but by voting.

A third path in recent history?

Since the 1980s, several independent or third-party candidates have reached national relevance, though none have won. In 1980, moderate Republican John Anderson ran as an independent and captured 6.6% of the popular vote. In 1992, Texas businessman Ross Perot —with a message focused on fiscal discipline and anti-elitism— earned an extraordinary 18.9% of the vote, without winning any states but profoundly disrupting the race between Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush. In 2000, Ralph Nader, as the Green Party candidate, garnered just 2.7%, but that was enough to split the vote in key states and possibly tip the election in George W. Bush’s favor.

Can Elon Musk run for president?

No. The U.S. Constitution, in Article II, Section 1, clearly states that to be president, one must be a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old, and have resided in the U.S. for the past 14 years. Elon Musk, although a naturalized citizen since the mid-2000s, was born in Pretoria, South Africa. Therefore, he does not meet the constitutional requirement of being U.S.-born and is legally ineligible to run for president, even if he had popular or political support. However, this limitation does not prevent him from founding a political party or playing a decisive role in national politics. In the U.S., creating a political party does not require federal approval. It only requires legal organization at the state level, fulfilling local registration requirements, and presenting candidates for public office.

Musk can serve as the party’s founder, president, strategist, financier, or chief spokesperson, using his wealth, media presence, and social influence to position the movement on the national stage.

If a candidate from his party were to win the presidency, Musk could still be appointed to a key Cabinet role —such as Secretary of Energy, Commerce, Defense, or even Secretary of State— provided he meets the legal qualifications for the position. He is also eligible to run for U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, having been a U.S. citizen for more than nine and seven years, respectively, as required by law. This could allow him to lead a new congressional caucus that could wield real legislative power. In fact, with just 5 senators and 15 representatives, a new centrist bloc could become the decisive swing vote in closely divided chambers—forcing both traditional parties to moderate their ideological extremes.

Coud that party present a presidential candidate?

Absolutely. A new party can nominate candidates for president and vice president, as long as they meet the constitutional requirements. Figures like Ross Perot (1992 and 1996), Ralph Nader (2000), and more recently Howard Schultz have all either explored or pursued this path outside the traditional two-party system.

While Musk himself cannot run, he could endorse and fund a presidential candidate who is independent, charismatic, and competent, while organizing a national coalition with candidates for Senate, the House, and state governments. So even if he can’t reside in the White House, Musk can lead from the outside, presenting candidates, shaping the public discourse, and potentially transforming the American political landscape.

The challenge is not in running, but in achieving national visibility, collecting the necessary signatures in all 50 states, qualifying for televised presidential debates, and securing a strategically distributed slice of the Electoral College. Still, with Musk’s financial power, tech infrastructure, and media reach —as the owner of a global social network (X), a satellite communications system (Starlink), and a daily audience of millions— this once-impossible feat may now be within reach.

Who could be the new party’s candidate

for the presidency, the Senate, or the House of Representatives?

Musk could attract charismatic, disruptive, and moderate figures from various fields. Below is a list of individuals —former Democrats, former Republicans, independents, and leaders from the business, cultural, and social arenas— who could credibly run for president, take on key executive roles, or seek congressional office under a centrist, pragmatic, and post-ideological party banner.

Among the most notable names is Oprah Winfrey —entrepreneur, philanthropist, and cultural icon— who represents a unifying figure with deep emotional resonance and broad appeal across demographics. She could be the kind of national consensus candidate the country hasn’t seen in decades. Another strong contender is Andrew Yang, technocrat and former presidential candidate who introduced bold ideas such as universal basic income and already launched his own movement, the Forward Party.

From the world of business, Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and outspoken entrepreneur, brings critical thinking and ideological independence. Condoleezza Rice, former Secretary of State with academic credentials and national security experience, still commands respect across party lines. Corporate leadership is also represented by Howard Schultz, former Starbucks CEO, who espouses centrist values and pragmatic governance.

Cory Booker, Democratic senator known for his inclusive rhetoric and moderate reform agenda, and Nikki Haley, a Republican of Indian descent and former U.N. Ambassador critical of Trump, could attract disillusioned voters from both sides.

From the cultural and media arena, Matthew McConaughey, actor and public intellectual, has hinted at political interest grounded in ethical, nonpartisan values. Larry Hogan, former Republican governor of Maryland, earned bipartisan praise for his level-headed leadership. Gina Raimondo, current Secretary of Commerce and former governor of Rhode Island, brings a technocratic, pro-business profile that could complement a centrist ticket.

On the center-right, Dan Crenshaw, Republican congressman from Texas and former Navy SEAL, combines firm principles with openness to dialogue. From finance, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is often cited as a leader capable of steering through turbulent economic waters.

On the disruptive side, Joe Rogan, independent media personality with a vast youth following, represents a nontraditional voice with cross-cutting influence. From the tech and business world, Sheryl Sandberg, former COO of Meta and advocate for women in leadership, and Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder with global stature, stand out.

Younger but rising are Alexis Ohanian, Reddit co-founder and digital activist, and Van Jones, lawyer and commentator known for bridging diverse communities. Also on the list Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO and diplomat, with both executive and political experience.

And why not consider Michelle Obama? While she has consistently denied political ambitions, her public image —marked by integrity, leadership, and empathy— has long been regarded as presidential. Or Arnold Schwarzenegger, former California governor, environmental advocate, and globally respected statesman, who is constitutionally ineligible to run for the U.S. presidency but is eligible to serve in the Senate. Or even Jeb Bush, former Florida governor, education reformer, and well-regarded centrist within the Republican Party.

Of course, this list is not exhaustive. In a country of over 330 million people —and a diaspora rich in political, academic, entrepreneurial, artistic, and civic talent— there are many capable figures who could serve with integrity in the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, or highest executive offices, including the presidency and vice presidency. The names mentioned here are simply those that came to mind —or perhaps emerged from the collective unconscious— when imagining those who might embody a political proposal that reconciles America with its future.

A future with three paths?

Elon Musk represents much more than a visionary entrepreneur. He embodies a silent revolution that has transformed industries, challenged mindsets, and disrupted the trajectory of global innovation. Now, that disruption could take on political form.

The growing discontent with the two-party system, the erosion of the ideological center, the public’s frustration with institutional inertia, and voter fatigue with endless cultural wars are converging to create a historic opening for the emergence of a third national political force, future-oriented, solution-driven, and free from the ideological baggage of the past.

The year 2028 could be a turning point, an opportunity for a new political option to emerge and rally those who today feel unrepresented. Centrists, independents, moderates, technocrats, entrepreneurs, disillusioned youth, and millions of citizens who believe in progress without dogma, in efficiency with compassion, and in public service ethics over party loyalty.

Of course, it wouldn’t be easy. The U.S. electoral system —with its complex state-level regulations, winner-take-all design, and deeply entrenched two-party structure— seems built to exclude outsiders. Legal, logistical, and cultural barriers are real, but American political history reminds us that major transformations rarely emerge from comfort—they begin with courage. They don’t start with guarantees, but with bold, visionary decisions.

And if there is someone today with the will, the resources, the global influence, and the audacity to attempt breaking through that wall, it’s Elon Musk. Whether or not he is the one remains uncertain. His figure polarizes, but it also mobilizes, provokes reflection, and inspires. He won’t occupy the presidency himself, but he just might ignite the spark that launches a new political chapter in the United States, one in which the country is no longer trapped between two options… but finally opens a third path toward the future.

Are We Witnessing the Beginning of a New Political Order

in America?

Are we witnessing the birth of a third national force, one that reclaims ideological centrism, common sense, practical innovation, and moderation as political virtues? Could Elon Musk, without ever running for president, redefine the system from its margins, catalyzing a transformation that neither Democrats nor Republicans have been willing or able to lead? Could a minority become a decisive force in Congress because their votes are essential to pass legislation?

The answers are not yet written. As with every great historical crossroads, the future will depend on our capacity to imagine alternatives, to organize them coherently, and to bring them into the electoral arena with boldness and clarity.

One thing is clear, millions of Americans no longer want to choose between two extremes. They are longing for an option that fuses freedom with fairness, technology with humanity, and progress with ethics.

It’s up to all of us —citizens, analysts, leaders, and voters— to observe with clarity, analyze with rigor, and when the time comes, vote with conscience rather than resignation. Because perhaps we are not simply facing another presidential election… Perhaps we are on the verge of a new political era in the United States, and opportunities like that —as we well know— do not come around every day.

If you wish to explore this topic further, comment, or ask questions, feel free to reach me at psicologosgessen@hotmail.com... See you in our next edition.

Vladimir Gessen

Psychologist and political analyst